This talk will outline an earthquake-induced landslide (EIL) forecast tool that will produce outputs for the GeoNet landslide duty officers after a significant earthquake, in near-real time, approximately 5 to 7 minutes after being triggered. The function of this tool is to provide rapid advisory information about the severity and likely location and impacts of landslides following a major earthquake, where ground shaking data recorded by the GeoNet strong motion instrument network is used as the input for the tool. The EIL forecast tool is the first of several to be developed as part of a larger landslide forecast project being carried out by the GNS Science landslide and social science teams, and others. The aims of the overall project are to allow the GeoNet landslide duty officers (the end users) to: 1) Rapidly identify whether an earthquake or a rain event can generate landslides and the severity of landsliding; 2) Rapidly generate advisory information such as a spatial representation (map and table) of where landslides could occur in a significant earthquake or rainfall event and where the debris might travel, which can be used to help target response activities. The efficacy of the tool is demonstrated using the MW 7.8 14 November 2016 Kaikoura Earthquake, and the landslides it generated, as an example of how the tool would work and the outputs it generates.
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