Advancing Seismic Hazard Analysis with Physicsbased modelling: Putting More PHYS into PSHA

Presented by Professor Thomas H. Jordan Southern California Earthquake Centre University of Southern California

Advanced applications of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) in California combine fault-based earthquake rupture forecasts with site-specific ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) to estimate long-term seismic shaking probabilities. Both PSHA components have been refined through comprehensive, iterated studies, including the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF) Project and the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) Project. Although these collaborative efforts have improved our understanding of seismic hazards, the uncertainties in PSHA forecasts remain high